{"id":2447,"date":"2023-12-07T15:13:50","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T22:13:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/affordableenergyrates.ca\/?p=2447"},"modified":"2023-12-12T15:15:00","modified_gmt":"2023-12-12T22:15:00","slug":"physics-gets-in-the-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/articles\/physics-gets-in-the-way\/","title":{"rendered":"Net Zero by 2035 Isn\u2019t Impossible but Will Be Expensive"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class='flex_column av-av_two_fifth-5ee163123e8ea9be5a34212ec719565f av_two_fifth  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-first  first flex_column_div  '     ><style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-lpvr4bgp-30585dc44b5f63ff918525dc08dd7ebb\">\n.avia-image-container.av-lpvr4bgp-30585dc44b5f63ff918525dc08dd7ebb img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-lpvr4bgp-30585dc44b5f63ff918525dc08dd7ebb .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-lpvr4bgp-30585dc44b5f63ff918525dc08dd7ebb av-styling- avia-align-left  avia-builder-el-1  avia-builder-el-no-sibling '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-2448 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-2448 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03.jpg\" alt='' title='Physics Gets in the Way'  height=\"1000\" width=\"1000\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03-80x80.jpg 80w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03-36x36.jpg 36w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03-180x180.jpg 180w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/eb03-705x705.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-av_three_fifth-2ee2f759a17230fbae75bd72043794d6\">\n.flex_column.av-av_three_fifth-2ee2f759a17230fbae75bd72043794d6{\npadding:0 60px 0 0;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-av_three_fifth-2ee2f759a17230fbae75bd72043794d6 av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-2  el_after_av_two_fifth  el_before_av_one_full  flex_column_div  '     ><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-lpvqzkoh-3e5f765a6135be6400ff9b6bc322e317\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-lpvqzkoh-3e5f765a6135be6400ff9b6bc322e317{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-lpvqzkoh-3e5f765a6135be6400ff9b6bc322e317 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-lpvqzkoh-3e5f765a6135be6400ff9b6bc322e317 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-lpvqzkoh-3e5f765a6135be6400ff9b6bc322e317 av-special-heading-h2  avia-builder-el-3  el_before_av_hr  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Physics Gets in the Way of CER Success in Alberta<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-av_hr-3a876428eececa9d35452247ddb053af\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-av_hr-3a876428eececa9d35452247ddb053af{\nheight:50px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-av_hr-3a876428eececa9d35452247ddb053af hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-lpvr1rlf-a111b64722544db1b7b977520a09f0eb '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>By Evan Bahry<\/strong><br \/>\nCER Op-ED &#8211; (CER &#8211; stands for Certified Emissions Reduction) CERs are electronic certificates issued for greenhouse gas emission reductions from clean development mechanism (CDM) project activities or programmes of activities (PoAs) in accordance with the CDM rules and requirements.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div><div class='flex_column_table av-av_one_full-5783dbb0bc502fd2d63c708f93732e74 sc-av_one_full av-equal-height-column-flextable'>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-av_one_full-5783dbb0bc502fd2d63c708f93732e74\">\n#top .flex_column_table.av-equal-height-column-flextable.av-av_one_full-5783dbb0bc502fd2d63c708f93732e74{\nmargin-top:50px;\nmargin-bottom:10px;\n}\n.flex_column.av-av_one_full-5783dbb0bc502fd2d63c708f93732e74{\npadding:20px 20px 20px 20px;\nbackground-color:#e2e2e2;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-av_one_full-5783dbb0bc502fd2d63c708f93732e74 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-6  el_after_av_three_fifth  el_before_av_one_half  first flex_column_table_cell av-equal-height-column av-align-middle  '     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-lpvr2g9u-f4b964ac6f2c6305c3f1bd2f49cfaaff '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-2141 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/affordableenergyrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/favicon-80x80.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" srcset=\"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/favicon-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/favicon-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/favicon.png 128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 80px) 100vw, 80px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>The article argues that achieving a Net Zero electricity grid in Alberta by 2035 faces significant challenges due to the physics of renewable energy sources. While wind and solar have succeeded, their capacity factors are limited, and the reliability of the grid depends on natural gas-fired generation, which cannot be easily replaced.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><!--close column table wrapper. Autoclose: 1 --><div class='flex_column_table av-av_one_half-bc58666e8a381f11ddc5c699204ac202 sc-av_one_half av-equal-height-column-flextable'><div  class='flex_column av-av_one_half-bc58666e8a381f11ddc5c699204ac202 av_one_half  avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_one_full  el_before_av_one_half  first flex_column_table_cell av-equal-height-column av-align-middle  column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-lpvr55rm-d76d6c2c9d207d31015bde831036e0b3 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Physics is a real and irrefutable barrier to implementing a Net Zero electricity grid in Alberta by 2035.<\/p>\n<p>While wind and solar are profound Alberta success stories, they cannot ensure a reliable power system on their own. Even with the strength of Alberta\u2019s nation-leading wind and solar resources, renewable generation operates here at less than 40% and less than 20% of their potential output, respectively. (That\u2019s known as their capacity factor.)<\/p>\n<p>Maintaining a 100% reliable power grid is only possible in Alberta via its 12,000 plus megawatts of natural gas-fired generation, along with the province\u2019s small amount of hydro, remaining coal generation and interties. Alberta simply does not have the geography for large-scale hydro and nor does it have any experience with nuclear power. Expanding interties will not help because interties are wires. What\u2019s needed on the other side of the wire is available non-emitting, dispatchable supply, which simply does not exist at the scale needed to meet what has become the third largest power market in Canada.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><div class='av-flex-placeholder'><\/div><div  class='flex_column av-av_one_half-feecfcc73494c68bb0d1632d1d5c38ae av_one_half  avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_one_half  el_before_av_one_full  flex_column_table_cell av-equal-height-column av-align-middle  column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-lpvr33tb-cb200ce95ce01f0f987a4a9b44fdd459 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock blockquote'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>&#8220;That threat is a barrier to economy &#8211; wide decarbonization given that physics makes a reliable net zero power grid for Alberta by 2035 an impossibility. No premier should be asked to put electricity reliability on the negotiating table.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><!--close column table wrapper. Autoclose: 1 -->\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-av_one_full-7be0e7d2cbbcba0ca9a9e5b250137e07\">\n#top .flex_column.av-av_one_full-7be0e7d2cbbcba0ca9a9e5b250137e07{\nmargin-top:0px;\nmargin-bottom:0px;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_column.av-av_one_full-7be0e7d2cbbcba0ca9a9e5b250137e07{\nmargin-top:0px;\nmargin-bottom:0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-av_one_full-7be0e7d2cbbcba0ca9a9e5b250137e07 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_one_half  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div  column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-lpvr6r27-d0c9f06c78b4e4b3923162d84fa9040a '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>In addition to balancing the intermittency of renewables, there are other requirements for operating a power grid that large, geographically disperse, natural gas-fired generation can provide in Alberta. This includes system inertia, primary frequency response, load following, regulating reserves and others. This is the physics that enables reliable power systems to operate.<\/p>\n<p>The implications of the loss of natural gas generation have been repeatedly documented by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) in its June 2022 report Net-Zero Emissions Pathways, its March 2023 report, Reliability Requirements Roadmap, and its August 2, 2023 report, Market Pathways. From the 2022 paper, the AESO stated, \u201cRisk is unacceptable in all scenarios if legacy unabated gas units exit the market and are not replaced by supply with similar operating characteristics.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>New technologies such as carbon capture, hydrogen, small modular reactors, storage, geothermal and direct air capture have never been implemented &#8211; anywhere &#8211; at the scale needed to meet Alberta\u2019s demand. Simply put, Alberta will need a lot of gas-fired generation to keep the lights on through to 2035 and beyond.<\/p>\n<p>The good news is Alberta\u2019s power system has been dramatically decarbonizing given its shift off of coal. In fact, the AESO forecasted in its 2022 Long-Term Outlook that Alberta power sector GHGs would fall by 61% from 2005-2030. That\u2019s twice Canada\u2019s Paris Accord commitment. It is also good news that non-emitting baseload and dispatchable technologies are coming, but they are going to take time.<\/p>\n<p>The better news is that the Prime Minister of Canada and the Premier of Alberta have found agreement. Alberta and Canada are now both committed to striving for a net zero economy by 2050.\u00a0\u00a0 Let\u2019s build on that common ground.<\/p>\n<p>To this end, I would invite the Government of Canada to rethink the 2035 timeline for electricity decarbonization. If the whole of the economy\u2019s goal is to reach net zero by 2050 &#8211; and all segments of the economy will tool-up accordingly for that date &#8211; then the decarbonization of the power sector should simply be allowed to converge at that date. Perhaps 2045 is a workable compromise?<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, changing the date would simultaneously lift the threat made by the federal government to remove tax credits for other industrial decarbonization if provinces don\u2019t agree to a net zero grid by 2035. That threat is a barrier to economy-wide decarbonization given that physics makes a reliable net zero power grid for Alberta by 2035 an impossibility. No premier should be asked to put electricity reliability on the negotiating table.<\/p>\n<p>For its part, I would invite the Government of Alberta to lift its moratorium on wind and solar to allow important investments to continue, but to seriously study Renewable Energy Zones (REZ) as a means to improve the integration of future renewables. REZs are used in both Texas and Australia; which are the competitive electricity markets most similar to Alberta\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>I would also invite the Government of Alberta to consider a public\/private partnership to de-risk the development of CCUS in Alberta to connect the province\u2019s natural gas-fired generation, energy, cement, hydrogen, petchem industries and any other large industrial emitter that is economically reasonable to sequester.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s build on our common ground. Let\u2019s get to a net zero economy by 2050. And let\u2019s not attempt to trump the laws of physics with the other kind of law.<\/p>\n<p><em>Evan Bahry &#8211;\u00a0<\/em><em>Former Executive Director of the Independent Power Producers Society of Alberta<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Mr. Bahry served as IPPSA\u2019s Executive Director from 2001 to 2023. IPPSA is the association of Alberta\u2019s gas, wind, solar, coal and hydro power producers who compete to serve Alberta\u2019s power consumers.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2447"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2447\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2570,"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2447\/revisions\/2570"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/affordablepowerrates.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}