Physics Gets in the Way of CER Success in Alberta
By Evan Bahry
CER Op-ED – (CER – stands for Certified Emissions Reduction) CERs are electronic certificates issued for greenhouse gas emission reductions from clean development mechanism (CDM) project activities or programmes of activities (PoAs) in accordance with the CDM rules and requirements.
The article argues that achieving a Net Zero electricity grid in Alberta by 2035 faces significant challenges due to the physics of renewable energy sources. While wind and solar have succeeded, their capacity factors are limited, and the reliability of the grid depends on natural gas-fired generation, which cannot be easily replaced.
Physics is a real and irrefutable barrier to implementing a Net Zero electricity grid in Alberta by 2035.
While wind and solar are profound Alberta success stories, they cannot ensure a reliable power system on their own. Even with the strength of Alberta’s nation-leading wind and solar resources, renewable generation operates here at less than 40% and less than 20% of their potential output, respectively. (That’s known as their capacity factor.)
Maintaining a 100% reliable power grid is only possible in Alberta via its 12,000 plus megawatts of natural gas-fired generation, along with the province’s small amount of hydro, remaining coal generation and interties. Alberta simply does not have the geography for large-scale hydro and nor does it have any experience with nuclear power. Expanding interties will not help because interties are wires. What’s needed on the other side of the wire is available non-emitting, dispatchable supply, which simply does not exist at the scale needed to meet what has become the third largest power market in Canada.
“That threat is a barrier to economy – wide decarbonization given that physics makes a reliable net zero power grid for Alberta by 2035 an impossibility. No premier should be asked to put electricity reliability on the negotiating table.”
In addition to balancing the intermittency of renewables, there are other requirements for operating a power grid that large, geographically disperse, natural gas-fired generation can provide in Alberta. This includes system inertia, primary frequency response, load following, regulating reserves and others. This is the physics that enables reliable power systems to operate.
The implications of the loss of natural gas generation have been repeatedly documented by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) in its June 2022 report Net-Zero Emissions Pathways, its March 2023 report, Reliability Requirements Roadmap, and its August 2, 2023 report, Market Pathways. From the 2022 paper, the AESO stated, “Risk is unacceptable in all scenarios if legacy unabated gas units exit the market and are not replaced by supply with similar operating characteristics.”
New technologies such as carbon capture, hydrogen, small modular reactors, storage, geothermal and direct air capture have never been implemented – anywhere – at the scale needed to meet Alberta’s demand. Simply put, Alberta will need a lot of gas-fired generation to keep the lights on through to 2035 and beyond.
The good news is Alberta’s power system has been dramatically decarbonizing given its shift off of coal. In fact, the AESO forecasted in its 2022 Long-Term Outlook that Alberta power sector GHGs would fall by 61% from 2005-2030. That’s twice Canada’s Paris Accord commitment. It is also good news that non-emitting baseload and dispatchable technologies are coming, but they are going to take time.
The better news is that the Prime Minister of Canada and the Premier of Alberta have found agreement. Alberta and Canada are now both committed to striving for a net zero economy by 2050. Let’s build on that common ground.
To this end, I would invite the Government of Canada to rethink the 2035 timeline for electricity decarbonization. If the whole of the economy’s goal is to reach net zero by 2050 – and all segments of the economy will tool-up accordingly for that date – then the decarbonization of the power sector should simply be allowed to converge at that date. Perhaps 2045 is a workable compromise?
Additionally, changing the date would simultaneously lift the threat made by the federal government to remove tax credits for other industrial decarbonization if provinces don’t agree to a net zero grid by 2035. That threat is a barrier to economy-wide decarbonization given that physics makes a reliable net zero power grid for Alberta by 2035 an impossibility. No premier should be asked to put electricity reliability on the negotiating table.
For its part, I would invite the Government of Alberta to lift its moratorium on wind and solar to allow important investments to continue, but to seriously study Renewable Energy Zones (REZ) as a means to improve the integration of future renewables. REZs are used in both Texas and Australia; which are the competitive electricity markets most similar to Alberta’s.
I would also invite the Government of Alberta to consider a public/private partnership to de-risk the development of CCUS in Alberta to connect the province’s natural gas-fired generation, energy, cement, hydrogen, petchem industries and any other large industrial emitter that is economically reasonable to sequester.
Let’s build on our common ground. Let’s get to a net zero economy by 2050. And let’s not attempt to trump the laws of physics with the other kind of law.
Evan Bahry – Former Executive Director of the Independent Power Producers Society of Alberta
Mr. Bahry served as IPPSA’s Executive Director from 2001 to 2023. IPPSA is the association of Alberta’s gas, wind, solar, coal and hydro power producers who compete to serve Alberta’s power consumers.
